🌅 Public Opinion Has No Impact on U.S. Law

SOURCE

Gilens & Page (2014)

WHAT TO KNOW

• A pair of researchers at Princeton University and Northwestern University analyzed nearly 2,000 cases of policy debate and change, finding the probability that U.S. lawmakers will adopt a bill into law is nearly the same (approximately 30%) regardless of whether the policy idea has little or broad support from the general voting public. In effect, the average citizen’s preference regarding a policy idea has a “near-zero” impact on whether the policy will be adopted.

WHY IT MATTERS

• By contrast, when a policy has strong support among the top 10% of U.S. earners, the proposed change is adopted around 45% of the time; when policies have low support among high earners, they’re only adopted about 18% of the time. Similarly, when support for a policy is low among special interest groups, the idea is adopted just 16% of the time; when support is high, the policy is adopted 47% of the time.

CONNECT THE DOTS

• The findings of the present study—published in 2014—run counter to the long-held “Median Voter Theorem,” which suggests policy outcomes reflect the will of voters in the ideological center. The authors never described the system they were analyzing as an “oligarchy,” however, the findings clearly illustrated the impact of affluence on legislative outcomes (which several writers pointed out at the time). A decade on, Donald Trump is in power, leading an administration employing at least 12 billionaires, having used Elon Musk’s $250 million to get there.