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🌅 The Trump Administration Has an Insider Trading Problem

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Sunrise Stat
April 21, 2026

$1.5 billion - The value of suspicious oil futures trades placed shortly before Donald Trump made recent public announcements affecting the price of oil.

Reuters

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SOURCE
WHAT TO KNOW

  • U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig says the independent agency will continue to enforce laws against market manipulation and insider trading amid media reports of new federal probes into $1.5 billion worth of suspiciously timed oil futures trades placed during Trump’s war with Iran. Appearing before the House of Representatives' Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFCT, Selig told lawmakers that while he couldn’t speak to any particular investigation, the agency has several investigations ongoing and is currently “ramping up” its enforcement arm.

WHY IT MATTERS

  • A new analysis by the BBC details a “consistent pattern” of suspicious financial trades placed shortly before Trump makes major, market-moving public announcements. Experts say that while it’s technically possible traders have become adept at predicting Trump’s chaotic policy decisions, the pattern bears the hallmarks of trades placed by people with insider (i.e., non-public) information. Many bets were placed mere minutes before Trump made surprise announcements or sharp pivots, and several of the accounts placing bets have little or no activity aside from trades regarding recent U.S. military activity that the accounts seem to always win.

CONNECT THE DOTS

  • While Selig’s statements were encouraging to lawmakers, it’s unclear whether any investigation will actually have teeth. Selig—who was nominated by Trump in October 2025—has publicly positioned himself as friendly to prediction markets and is currently the sole commissioner on a panel that typically has five bipartisan members. Beyond the president himself, Donald Trump Jr. is also an investor and unpaid advisor at Polymarket and a paid advisor at Kalshi, two of the world’s largest prediction markets. In March, the White House sent an email to staff warning against placing bets on prediction markets.

Disclosure: Kalshi is a former sponsor of Sunrise Stat.