🌅 The Household Cost of Trump’s Tariffs

SOURCE

Yale Budget Lab

WHAT TO KNOW

• Researchers at the Yale Budget Lab estimate President Trump’s tariffs will cost U.S. households an average of $2,400 this year as prices climb across a broad range of goods. The analysis found Americans are facing an effective tariff rate of around 18%, the highest since 1934.

WHY IT MATTERS

• The tariffs will reduce productivity and investment across broad sectors, lowering U.S. GDP growth by about 0.4% annually in the long-run, equivalent to about $125 billion lost each year. The report also found the unemployment rate will rise about 0.3 percentage points by the end of this year, equivalent to around 490,000 lost jobs.

CONNECT THE DOTS

• A different analysis by the Budget Lab found the tariffs will also increase the number of Americans living in poverty by between 650,000 and 875,000 next year—roughly 0.2% to 0.3% of the U.S. population—including some 150,000 to 375,000 children. Other soft data aligns with the finding: Google searches for “bankruptcy lawyer” just reached a new high in the U.S.