🌅 These Mail Updates Could Impact Elections

Sunrise Stat
January 12, 2026

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On Christmas Eve, an update at the Postal Service went into effect, defining what a postmark is and what it signifies, and clarifying that a postmark date does not necessarily indicate the date a piece of mail was actually received by a post office. At the same time, the Trump administration has been working to consolidate the Postal Service’s vast network of processing centers under its Delivering for America plan, which, along with new standardized transportation schedules outlined in the plan, is expected to introduce delays between the time a person drops off their mail and when it receives a postmark. Experts say the updates could have major implications on Election Day.

Currently, 16 states permit absentee ballots to be counted if they were postmarked by Election Day, reasoning that a postmark date is reliable evidence of timely mailing. However, election officials say the combined effect of the updates to the Postal Service’s operations and the clarification of postmarking could increase the number of absentee ballots that are rejected as untimely (the Postal Service recommends mailing ballots at least one week before your state’s deadline to ensure timely delivery). A new analysis by researchers at the Brookings Institution found 74% of U.S. ZIP codes are now at risk of delayed postmarking due to the updates. In 2024, 30% of voters cast their ballots via mail.

Later this year, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee, a case in which the Republican party is arguing that counting absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day is unconstitutional, and that all ballots must instead be received by election officials before the end of Election Day to be valid. While it isn’t clear how the Court will rule (a decision is expected ahead of the 2026 midterm elections), experts note that absentee voting has been around for 250 years, while research shows it is highly secure, with an average total mail voting fraud percentage of just 0.000043% across the 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections. That amounts to only four fraudulent votes cast for every 10 million mail-in ballots.