🌅 A Decade of Above-Normal Hurricane Activity

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SOURCE

NOAA

WHAT TO KNOW

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30), forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and 3 to 5 major hurricanes (111 mph or higher; defined as Category 3 and above). An average season produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

WHY IT MATTERS

• NOAA is forecasting a 60% chance of “above-normal” activity this season, followed by a 30% chance of “near-normal” activity, and a 10% chance of “below-normal” activity. If accurate, it will be the 10th consecutive season with above-average activity.

CONNECT THE DOTS

• On May 23, the Council on Foreign Relations released an expert brief analyzing President Trump’s decision to cut funding to NOAA, finding the administration’s fiscal year 2026 budget amounts to one of the largest single-year funding reductions in the agency’s 55-year history. The funding cuts not only impact the climate research and weather forecasting done by NOAA—considered the gold standard among open-access weather data—but also the individuals and industry stakeholders that inextricably rely on the agency’s work.

PARTNER STAT

Traders on Sunrise Stat partner Kalshi forecast 3.9 major hurricanes in the Atlantic this year, aligning with the range in NOAA’s prediction above.

• However, Kalshi traders also forecast 9.6 hurricanes and 17.2 named tropical storms this hurricane season, both of which are at the higher end of NOAA’s forecasts. 

Sunrise Stat is proud to partner with Kalshi to share interesting insights about the probabilities people place on a variety of current events! Kalshi users can trade on everything from the Atlantic hurricane season to the NBA Finals to how well a movie will do on Rotten Tomatoes. Use the link below to join Kalshi today.

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